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- Global Market Expectation
Global Market Expectation
Global Market per Specific Superconducting Devices |
Developed countries dominate the market in the world. However recently developing countries in Asia and Latin America such as China, Brazil, etc. are expanding the markets explosively.
-Annual market sizes in 2008 are $9.7 billion for power cables, $18.3 billion for breakers, $21.9 billion for transformers, $147 billion for large rotating machines (generators/motor).
-In 2008, the markets were $27.4 billion in American continent (north and south America), $32.7 billion in Europe, $58 billion in Asia. The markets of Australia and Africa were minor.
The world's transmission and distribution equipments market in 2008 was $123.2 billion. Stable growth of around 4.65% per year is expected and $204.3 billion of global market is expected by 2020. Electricity transmission and distribution equipments in the future are anticipated as follows;
-Creation of new demands due to transition from existing single electrical equipments to green energy and converged digital equipments
-Aggressive investments to new generation growth technologies, such as smart grid, renewable, etc.
-The world leaders in electrical equipments such as ABB, Siemens, Areva, etc. which are European companies with more than 100 years of technologies experiences are still expected to lead the world market.
Global Market Size of Applicable Superconducting Devices |
Applicable market size for superconducting devices is the product of transmission and distribution equipment market size per item and market penetration ratio of superconducting devices.
Market penetration ratios of superconducting devices are 80% for cable, 30% for transformer, 5% for breaker, 20% for generator/motor .
Global market size of applicable superconducting devices is expected from $24.5 billion in 2015 to $113.3 billion by 2050. Of these, cable occupies $44.9 billion in 2050.
Real Global Market Size of Superconducting Devices |
Based on applicable global market size of superconducting devices above, global market size of superconducting devices was calculated by adjusting market penetration ratio (%) per year. If market penetration ratio per year is calculated by applying the parameters of S-curves described above and by assuming that 2011 is the first year that superconducting devices are introduced for the first time, the ratio is 0.7% in 2011 and reaches 100% by 2047 and after.
Market penetration of about 2.9% is expected in 2015 and annual global market size is expected to be around $720 million. The market penetration ratio is expected to be increased steadily due to decrease of superconducting equipments prices and increase of reliabilities and huge markets ($38.9 billion in 2030, $71.6 billion in 2040 and $113.3 billion in 2050) are anticipated to be formed.
If market size per equipments is reviewed, the orders are expected to be as superconducting cable market ($44.9 billion: the largest), rotators ($19.2 billion), transformer ($42.8 billion) and FCL ($6.4 billion).
Yearly global market expectation of superconducting equipments |